—2014 YEAR IN REVIEW—
And projections for the immediate future
Overall Market Review – The local real estate market may be undergoing a significant shift from recent years. The RayMaxTeam Year in Review reports for 2011, 2012, and 2013 all cited much stronger underlying fundamentals than was generally predicted at that time, citing many forces which would drive prices much higher than consensus forecasts. Naysayers called us polyannahs, but the RayMax forecasts proved more accurate. For the first time since 2009, this annual review is citing caution for those expecting big price appreciation for the market in the upcoming year, especially the first half of 2015. The yellow light is on, not red and not green: I welcome any discussion on this topic and feel free to contact me at any time.
A Review of Indian Ridge and Projections For 2015 – There were six sales reported on the MLS on Indian Ridge Road in 2014. They are listed below. It is often difficult to draw broad-based conclusions, given the difference in individual circumstances surrounding each sale. However, “on the ground” professionalism combined with actual raw data yields better awareness than either of the two in isolation. In the first half of 2014, sales at Indian Ridge were very strong: prices were rising, and homes were generally selling within days of listing. The last ratified contract was signed in June, meaning there were no sales in the second half of 2014. Five homes remain active on the market as we close out 2014. Nowhere has the overall shift in market sentiment been more pronounced than at Indian Ridge.
Projection for the Immediate Future: Sales and Pricing – There is a major elephant in the room regarding the future of Indian Ridge, making any projections foolhardy at this time. That elephant is named Northwest Mutual Insurance (NWM), majority owner of the golf course. It is imperative that every resident in Indian Ridge take the time to help the effort to kill any hope of re-zoning the Reston National Golf Course by NWM. For details, http://www.rescuereston.org. Although it is impossible to track the precise impact that this re-zoning threat is having on the recent sales slowdown at Indian Ridge, it is obvious that an unfavorable result will cripple your real estate values.
2014 Indian Ridge Sales:
Date Closed Address Price Sq. Ft. Price/SF BR/Bath
Jan (“As is”) 11793 I.R.Rd. $427,600 2,436 $176 3/3.5
Jan 11702 I.R. Rd. $445,000 2,064 $216 4/2.5
May 11794 I.R. Rd. $507,800 2,436 $208 4/3.5
June 11706 I.R. Rd. $492,000 2,064 $238 4/2.5
July 11747 I.R. Rd. $545,000 1,932 $282 4/3.5
July 11733 I.R. Rd. $495,900 2,064 $241 4/2.5
• Seeking a more detailed discussion on this report?
• Looking for a true market analysis of your home?
• Thinking of listing in 2015, and seeking to have it promoted as a high- end home in a unique, high end neighborhood should be promoted?
Ray Wedell, Realtor
Chartered Financial Analyst, CFA