“Wrong For So Long”: Bloomberg Tv points out that Wall Street Economists Have Given Faulty Interest Rate Forecasts for Ten Straight Years

As we roll out of 2014, and look forward to 2015, people continue to ask and forecast interest rates. And the most often cited “experts” are economists, particularly Wall Street economists.

Yet year after year, Wall Street economists are totally wrong in their forecasts. In fact, flipping coins would have provided much more accurate calls for every year in this century. So what are they saying now, and why do we care?

As a new year’s resolution, I am foregoing reading or commenting on Wall Street economists’ forecasts. And although a stopped watch is right twice a day, meaning these people may yet “get it right” this time, I have never met anyone who could consistently predict the direction of interest rates, and fewer still who could profit by that alone.

More important, are you positioned to benefit or survive dramatic changes in one direction or another? If not, why not? “Surprises” happen every year, in fact almost every week. It does you no good to be caught on the wrong side when an event happens that “nobody could predict.” If you are in the housing market, it seems logical that if you can accept today’s historically low interest rates as a gift, you should act on it. Maybe we drop another 1/4 percentage, or 1/2 percent. Will that dramatically change your life?

A major move which could impact you is more likely a move up from here in rates, not down. So protect yourself from that possibility.

The link below has the Bloomberg tv segment on this subject:

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/why-can-t-wall-street-economists-get-forecasts-right-b7JDgr1RS8WNAeliEh5RyQ.html

Ray Wedell, Realtor

Chartered Financial Analyst, CFA

RE/MAX Gateway

703-855-7299

raymaxteam@gmail.com

http://www.raymaxinternational.com

Advertisements

About RayWedellRealEstate

Real estate professional with Samson Properties. Chartered Financial Analyst, CFA
This entry was posted in interest rate forecasts, wrong for so long and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s